Bernstein Sees Prediction Markets as Robinhood Growth Engine
Bernstein raised Robinhood's price target to $160, arguing tokenized equities and prediction markets — not crypto trading — will drive its next growth phase.
In Brief
- Bernstein raised its Robinhood (HOOD) price target to $160 from $130 and kept an Outperform rating
- Analysts argue prediction markets could become Robinhood’s fastest-growing business, reaching $1.7B in revenue by 2028
- The thesis reflects prediction markets going mainstream as Coinbase and Robinhood build one-stop prediction offerings
Analysts at Bernstein have raised their price target on Robinhood Markets, betting that the brokerage’s next phase of growth will be driven by tokenized equities and prediction markets rather than traditional crypto trading.
In a Monday research note, Bernstein lifted its target on Robinhood (HOOD) stock to $160 from $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating, with shares last trading around $101, according to Cointelegraph.
The call is a marker of how far prediction markets have traveled from political novelty to a line item in a major bank’s model. Bernstein forecasts the segment’s revenue reaching $1.7 billion by 2028, a 64% compound annual growth rate — a pace that would make it one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing businesses.
Separately, the thesis reflects prediction markets going mainstream as Coinbase and Robinhood build one-stop prediction offerings.
Why prediction markets are the growth story
Prediction markets — led by platforms such as Polymarket — let users take positions on event outcomes, from central-bank rate decisions to who performs at the Super Bowl, and have evolved into a multibillion-dollar corner of crypto. Bernstein’s argument is that Robinhood can package them alongside conventional trading and capture a mainstream audience.
The bank’s confidence rests on adoption signals. The FIFA World Cup became the largest prediction-market event ever, with Polymarket topping $4.3 billion in tournament volume, proving the product can scale beyond politics into entertainment and sports betting at massive size.
Robinhood is not alone. CoinDesk reported that centralized trading platforms including Coinbase and Robinhood are moving into prediction markets to offer customers a one-stop shop, turning a once-niche category into a competitive battleground that also spans on-chain challengers like Hyperliquid.
Tokenization is the other pillar
Beyond prediction markets, Bernstein highlighted tokenized equities as a major long-term opportunity, pointing to Robinhood’s investment in blockchain infrastructure, including its Arbitrum-based Robinhood Chain, the note said.
The thesis is that tokenized stocks and on-chain prediction markets reduce Robinhood’s reliance on volatile spot-crypto trading volumes, giving it steadier, fee-generating businesses tied to traditional asset classes rather than boom-and-bust token prices.
The regulatory backdrop is still unsettled. Frontierbeat has tracked how prediction markets draw political heat — France recently ordered internet providers to block Polymarket, and U.S. lawmakers continue to debate the CLARITY Act’s odds in Congress — a reminder that the growth story depends on permissive rules holding as the category scales.
FAQ
What did Bernstein say about Robinhood?
Bernstein raised its Robinhood (HOOD) price target to $160 from $130, kept an Outperform rating, and argued tokenized equities and prediction markets will drive growth rather than spot crypto trading.
How big could Robinhood’s prediction-market business get?
Bernstein forecasts prediction-market segment revenue reaching $1.7 billion by 2028, a 64% compound annual growth rate.
Why are prediction markets attractive to brokers?
They let brokers package event betting — from rate decisions to sports — alongside conventional trading, capturing mainstream users and steadier fee revenue than volatile crypto volumes.
