Polymarket Traders Cut CLARITY Act Passage Odds to 32%, a Record Low
Bettors on Polymarket now give the CLARITY Act a 32% chance of becoming law this year — its lowest level since the market launched — as Senate negotiations over an ethics provision drag on.
In Brief
- Polymarket gives the CLARITY Act a 32% chance of passing by year-end, a record low since the market launched in January.
- The odds have fallen about 30 percentage points from launch and peaked at 82% in February.
- A bipartisan ethics provision remains the biggest obstacle, with Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) opposed without one.
Bettors on Polymarket now give the CLARITY Act a 32% chance of becoming law this year, the lowest level since the market launched in January and a sharp comedown from the optimism that surrounded the crypto market-structure bill earlier this year.
The odds have fallen roughly 30 percentage points from where they opened and climbed as high as 82% on Feb. 19 before steadily declining since early May, as the Senate’s legislative calendar narrowed and questions mounted over bipartisan support.
The slide reflects growing skepticism that Congress will pass the landmark crypto market-structure legislation before the end of 2026, even as industry executives urge action to reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore.
Why the CLARITY Act odds keep falling
The biggest sticking point is a bipartisan ethics provision: Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of two Democrats who advanced the bill out of committee, has repeatedly said he will not support it on the floor without one, and other Democrats have raised similar conflict-of-interest concerns.
Negotiations have continued behind the scenes, and lawmakers were working on updated text expected to be released the following week, but as of Friday no bipartisan ethics language had emerged and there was no public readout from a White House meeting with Senate Republicans.
The absence of a resolution has fed the downward repricing, with traders concluding that the path to 60 Senate votes is harder than the early-year enthusiasm implied.
What a stalled CLARITY Act means for crypto
Clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction is the prize industry wants most, because it would remove the ambiguity that has pushed crypto firms offshore and exposed them to enforcement actions.
Executives argue that certainty would accelerate institutional adoption and keep innovation in the US, making the bill’s fate a proxy for how welcoming US policy will be toward digital assets.
With odds at a record low, the market is effectively pricing in a meaningful chance the legislation slips past 2026, a verdict that could reshape how crypto companies plan their US operations.
Polymarket priced the CLARITY Act at a 32% chance of passing by year-end as of Friday, down from an 82% peak in February, according to CoinDesk.
FAQ
What are the CLARITY Act odds on Polymarket?
Polymarket gives the bill a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, its lowest since the market launched.
Why have the odds dropped?
They peaked at 82% in February but fell as the Senate calendar narrowed and a bipartisan ethics provision became the key obstacle.
Who is blocking the bill?
Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and other Democrats have conditioned support on a bipartisan ethics provision.
