Spain and Indonesia Block Polymarket—Prediction Market Ban Spreads
Spain and Indonesia blocked Polymarket and Kalshi within days, joining a growing global crackdown on prediction market platforms from Brazil to Singapore.
In Brief
- Spain temporarily banned Polymarket and Kalshi for operating without gambling licenses, with regulators investigating over the next three to four months
- Indonesia blocked Polymarket after the platform hosted bets on President Prabowo Subianto’s early exit, calling it “online gambling disguised as a prediction market”
- Both nations join Brazil, Argentina, India, Singapore, and other jurisdictions that have restricted prediction market platforms in recent months
Two countries blocked access to Polymarket within the same week, signaling a coordinated shift in how global regulators view prediction platforms. Spain moved first, temporarily banning both Polymarket and Kalshi over missing gambling licenses. Days later, Indonesia cut access to Polymarket after the site hosted wagers on President Prabowo Subianto’s tenure.
Spain’s gambling watchdog said the platforms lack identity verification and protections for minors, CoinCentral reports. The investigation is expected to last three to four months. Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, with 67% of profits going to just 0.1% of accounts, according to the regulator’s data.
Indonesian officials framed the ban differently. Alexander Sabar, the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs official, described Polymarket as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market,” CryptoBriefing reports. Gambling is prohibited in Indonesia, where authorities have been tightening enforcement against digital betting platforms.
Global Regulators Target Prediction Markets
The coordinated actions reflect a broader pattern. Brazil, Argentina, India, and Singapore have all imposed restrictions on prediction market platforms in recent months. The industry has grown into a multi-billion-dollar market, with volumes projected to hit $1 trillion by 2030, per industry estimates.
The U.S. regulatory landscape remains mixed. The SEC recently delayed decisions on prediction market ETFs, while the CFTC has deployed AI tools to track insider trading across global markets. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq push for 23-hour trading has drawn attention to how prediction markets like Polymarket assessed the proposal’s odds at just 12%.
Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi form part of a multibillion-dollar industry that allows users to speculate on elections, financial outcomes, and world events using cryptocurrency or fiat currency. Critics argue they function as unregulated gambling, while proponents say they provide valuable forecasting data.
What This Means for Crypto Betting Platforms
Indonesia’s ban came days after Polymarket listed a wager on whether President Prabowo would leave office before his term expires in 2029. The bet went viral on social media, prompting swift government action. Officials said blockchain technology does not exempt platforms from gambling laws.
Spain’s temporary ban applies to both Polymarket and Kalshi, the U.S.-based prediction market that has faced its own regulatory battles. The Spanish regulator argued the platforms failed to implement age verification and lacked transparent terms around payouts. Both platforms have indicated they will cooperate with the investigation.
The CLARITY Act, which recently cleared the Senate and declared Bitcoin no longer a security, does not address prediction markets directly, leaving a legislative gap that regulators are filling with existing gambling and securities laws.
FAQ
Why did Spain ban Polymarket and Kalshi?
Spain’s gambling watchdog said the platforms operated without gambling licenses, lacked identity checks, and failed to protect minors. The ban is temporary while regulators investigate.
Why did Indonesia block Polymarket?
Indonesia classified Polymarket as an online gambling service after the platform hosted bets on President Prabowo Subianto’s early exit. Gambling is prohibited under Indonesian law.
Which other countries have banned prediction markets?
Brazil, Argentina, India, and Singapore have all imposed restrictions on prediction market platforms in recent months, alongside the new actions from Spain and Indonesia.
Are Polymarket and Kalshi legal in the United States?
The regulatory status is mixed. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight for certain event contracts. Polymarket is restricted in the U.S. and primarily serves international users.
Could more countries follow Spain and Indonesia’s lead?
Analysts expect additional jurisdictions to scrutinize prediction markets, particularly where platforms host wagers on political outcomes or heads of state.
Polymarket processed over $3.7 billion in trading volume during the 2024 U.S. election cycle alone.
