Bitcoin Stalls Below $70K as the Iran War Weighs on Markets — AI Tokens Don’t Care
Bitcoin stalled near $69,500 as Iran war tensions rattled markets, while AI tokens ICP and FET surged on an Upbit listing and Jensen Huang's bullish comments.
Bitcoin traded around $69,500 during Wednesday’s European session, failing to hold above $71,000 after briefly touching $71,750 earlier in the week. The culprit, according to traders cited by CoinDesk, is the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sent oil prices swinging from $81 to $89 a barrel in just 48 hours. Conflicting statements from President Donald Trump on Tuesday added to the confusion, leaving leveraged long positions badly exposed.
A Rough Day for Long Holders
More than $220 million in crypto futures were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for the bulk. Open interest in Bitcoin futures on the CME dropped to $7.39 billion — the lowest since September 2024 — suggesting institutional appetite has pulled back sharply. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index fell for a third straight day, but analysts note that the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages remain stacked bullishly, which could set up a sharp recovery if geopolitical pressure eases.
The Fear and Greed index sits at 25/100, still in “fear” territory but off the “extreme fear” readings of recent weeks. On Deribit, protective puts remain more expensive than calls, though the gap has narrowed since early March. XRP futures open interest rose to 1.74 billion tokens, its highest since February 23, while Ethereum futures on the CME showed an equally sharp drop in institutional involvement.
AI Tokens Break From the Pack
While most altcoins bled — Curve fell 6.5%, Jupiter dropped the same amount — AI tokens moved in the opposite direction. Internet Computer (ICP) gained more than 8% after being listed on Korean exchange Upbit, with trading volume surging from $65 million to $267 million in a single session driven almost entirely by retail inflows. Fetch.ai (FET) added 6%, boosted by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s widely circulated blog post comparing the AI buildout to the industrial-scale electrification of the economy.
The divergence is notable. Crypto markets haven’t cleanly separated “AI narrative” tokens from broader risk-off sentiment before. Retail demand drove both ICP and FET, not institutional flows — a sign the AI token thesis is holding engagement even as macro headwinds press Bitcoin sideways. The AI infrastructure buildout narrative, which has driven significant investment in major data center projects, continues to attract capital from retail investors even as Wall Street hesitates.
Where Traders Are Positioned
On options platform Derive, traders are increasingly betting on a rally above $80,000 while simultaneously selling downside puts — a positioning that reflects cautious optimism rather than outright bearishness. The VIX was up 4% at 26%, and elevated stock market volatility historically spills into crypto. Bitcoin’s failure to build momentum above $70,000 proved costly for bulls holding leveraged positions this week. Whether the Iran situation de-escalates or deepens will likely dictate whether BTC tests $65,000 or pushes back toward $75,000 in the days ahead.
