- A nine-person jury unanimously rejected Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, finding all claims barred by the statute of limitations
- Prediction markets tracked the trial in real time — Kalshi traders dropped Musk’s odds from 60% to 40% as testimony unfolded
- The jury deliberated only two hours, and Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers accepted the advisory verdict
The jury has spoken, and the prediction markets saw it coming. A unanimous nine-person jury rejected all of Elon Musk’s claims against OpenAI and Sam Altman on Monday, finding that his breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment claims were barred by the three-year statute of limitations and that his aiding-and-abetting claim against Microsoft failed with them.
The verdict came after roughly two hours of deliberation. The jury is advisory in this federal bench trial, meaning Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers holds ultimate authority — and she accepted the decision.
Prediction markets tracked the trial in real time. Kalshi traders priced Musk’s odds of winning at roughly 60% before the trial opened on April 27. After his first day of testimony, odds dropped 8 points to 53.5%. By the time closing arguments wrapped on Thursday, Musk’s odds had fallen to around 40%. The markets moved fastest after Musk took the stand and after his attorney’s cross-examination of Altman failed to land the intended blows.
The core of Musk’s case was that OpenAI strayed from its founding nonprofit mission after he contributed roughly $38 million between 2015 and 2017. He sought up to $134 billion in disgorgement, claiming Altman and Brockman breached a charitable trust. OpenAI’s defense was simpler: Musk’s donations were spent on the research mission as agreed, and he waited too long to sue. The jury agreed on the timing.
Musk was not present for closing arguments. His attorney apologized to the jury, citing Musk’s presence on Donald Trump’s Beijing delegation alongside Tim Cook and Jensen Huang. Per Kalshi’s trial tracker, the NYT’s separate copyright lawsuit against OpenAI remains at 70.5% odds of success — a different case on a different timeline, but one the prediction markets continue to price far more favorably than Musk’s now-defeated effort.
FAQ
Why did Musk lose the case against OpenAI?
The jury found that Musk’s claims were barred by the three-year statute of limitations — meaning he waited too long after learning about OpenAI’s structural changes to file suit. His breach of charitable trust claim and the Microsoft aiding-and-abetting claim both failed on this basis.
What did prediction markets say about the trial?
Kalshi traders initially gave Musk roughly 60% odds of winning. Those odds dropped steadily during the trial, falling to around 40% by closing arguments. The market correctly anticipated the outcome before the verdict.
What happens next for OpenAI?
OpenAI’s recapitalization, which valued the company at $500 billion, now stands unchallenged by this lawsuit. The NYT’s separate copyright case against OpenAI continues, with prediction markets giving it roughly 70% odds of success.
[Editor’s note: This article was updated on May 18, 2026 to correct OpenAI’s recapitalization valuation. Original text stated the recapitalization “valued the company at $350 billion”; corrected to “$500 billion” per OpenAI’s own blog post stating Microsoft’s $135 billion stake represented roughly 27% on an as-converted diluted basis, and Bloomberg/CNBC reporting of the October 2025 share sale at a $500 billion valuation.]
