- The NBA is in active discussions with both Kalshi and Polymarket about a prediction market deal, with a possible agreement before next season.
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s engagement with leagues has accelerated talks, even as Congress pushes to ban sports-related prediction markets.
- The NBA may follow the NHL’s dual-partner model rather than an exclusive deal—unlike MLB’s $300 million Polymarket-only agreement.
The NBA is done watching from the sidelines. The league is in active discussions with both Kalshi and Polymarket about a prediction-market deal, Front Office Sports reported Thursday. Talks have been happening informally for more than a year but ramped up significantly in recent months—and a deal could land before the start of next season.
The timing is almost comically ironic. Congress is actively sharpening knives for prediction markets, with bipartisan scrutiny over insider trading risks and sports-related contracts. Yet the NBA—one of the last major U.S. holdouts alongside the NFL—is sprinting toward the platforms that legislators want to regulate into oblivion.
Why the NBA’s Prediction Market Push Matters
The shift began when CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who was confirmed in December and immediately began engaging with leagues on integrity frameworks. “It was his engagement that accelerated talks,” one source told FOS. “He signaled he has every intention of putting real regulation in place with proper protections.” The NBA’s focus is on controlling which markets are allowed and building mechanisms to monitor suspicious trading—particularly around individual player performance, which the CFTC flagged as vulnerable to manipulation.
The league won’t necessarily pick just one platform. Unlike MLB’s exclusive Polymarket deal—worth up to $300 million over four years—the NBA could reach agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket, mirroring the NHL’s model. The NHL struck landmark dual partnerships with both platforms in October 2025, gaining access to official data while giving both companies league marks and broadcast signage.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver laid the groundwork at All-Star Weekend in February, saying the league was “looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we’re looking at sports betting markets.” During that same weekend, Kalshi cofounders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara and Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan appeared on a panel at the NBA’s annual technology summit—the most-attended session of the event.
The league already has a template. Individual teams have moved independently: the Blackhawks partnered with Kalshi, the Rangers with Polymarket. MLS, UFC, and LaLiga have all signed Polymarket agreements. The prediction market land grab is accelerating across sports, finance, and entertainment—and the NBA is positioning itself to capture the revenue before regulators close the window.
Team presidents received a briefing this week from Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA’s EVP of media distribution and partnerships, on where negotiations stand. “Everyone sees these dollar signs,” one prediction-market executive told FOS. Deals typically grant platforms the right to use team logos, league marks, and official data including real-time game statistics. As the regulatory landscape continues to shift, the NBA’s move signals that the business case is winning over the cautionary one.
Former NBA player and assistant coach Damon Jones is expected to plead guilty to charges related to illegal betting—a reminder of why integrity frameworks matter. The prediction market boom isn’t risk-free, and the NBA knows it. But the revenue is too large to ignore. As of April 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket are processing billions in weekly wagers. The league just has to decide how much control it’s willing to trade for a piece of it.