Bitcoin managed a modest recovery through most of Friday before giving it back on Saturday, sliding about 3.4% to roughly $67,960. The move continues a pattern that has played out several times in recent months: a mid-week push toward higher ground, then late-session selling that drags prices back toward the low end of the range heading into the weekend. This week, Bitcoin touched $74,000 before the pullback
Dollar Strength Weighs on Risk Assets
The U.S. dollar index posted its steepest weekly gain in a year, as markets priced in the likelihood that sticky inflation and elevated energy costs would keep the Federal Reserve from cutting rates any time soon. That backdrop is a direct headwind for risk assets priced against the dollar.
“As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors moved quickly to the safety of the U.S. dollar, which strengthened as markets began pricing in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Bjorn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion.
The rest of the crypto market gave back more than Bitcoin. Ether fell 4.4% to around $1,974, Solana shed 4% to $84.31, and Dogecoin dropped 2.9% to $0.09. XRP and BNB fared somewhat better, each down around 2% for the session, according to Coindesk. Most majors remain modestly higher on a seven-day basis, which softens but does not erase the week’s late selloff.
Underwater Holders Add to Selling Pressure
On-chain data from Glassnode added context to the selling pressure: 43% of Bitcoin’s total market supply is currently sitting at a loss. That figure matters because it creates a structural incentive for underwater holders to sell into any meaningful recovery to break even, which can cap rallies even when sentiment turns. Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025 before the extended drawdown that has brought it to the current range.
Messari recorded a 415% jump in net stablecoin inflows over the week, reaching $1.7 billion, with daily stablecoin transfers up nearly 10%. Large stablecoin inflows typically suggest capital sitting on the sidelines, ready to be deployed if conditions improve. Whether that happens depends partly on whether the macroeconomic picture shifts — and on whether the U.S.-Iran conflict that has kept oil elevated and the Strait of Hormuz disrupted shows any sign of resolving.
Research firm Kaiko has framed the current environment in the context of Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, noting that a 52% drawdown from the October peak aligns with the 50-80% corrections that have followed previous cycle tops.
Kaiko’s analysts put Bitcoin roughly 30% into the expected bear phase, suggesting more time in the current range before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin’s weekly gain of 3.6% still edges out the broader decline in context, but Saturday’s close will test whether that matters to anyone watching the chart.