Apple is developing an AirTag-sized wearable with dual cameras and AI capabilities, hoping to succeed where competitors have spectacularly failed. The project remains in very early stages and could still be canceled, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The timing is notable. The standalone AI hardware category has become a graveyard for startups over the past year. Humane’s AI Pin sold roughly 10,000 units before HP acquired its assets for $116 million in February—a fraction of the $230 million the company raised. At one point, more Humane pins were being returned than sold.
The Rabbit R1 fared only marginally better. The device moved 100,000 units initially, but five months later retained just 5,000 active users. That 95% abandonment rate tells the story of a product category struggling to justify its existence.
Industry analysts estimate 90% of AI hardware startups failed in 2024. The lesson appears clear: consumers aren’t convinced they need another device when their smartphone already handles most tasks competently.
Meta’s Ray-Ban smart glasses represent the category’s lone success story, shipping 4 million units and capturing 80% market share. The company tripled sales year-over-year, suggesting the form factor matters as much as the technology. People will wear glasses. They won’t necessarily clip another gadget to their shirt.
Apple reportedly plans to launch its pin around 2027, with production targets reaching 20 million units. That’s an ambitious number given the market’s track record. The company believes its ecosystem advantage and design expertise can overcome the obstacles that sank competitors.
Meanwhile, the device many assumed would compete directly with Apple’s pin won’t. The product OpenAI is building with Jony Ive and his firm io will not be a wearable, despite widespread reporting to the contrary. That $6.5 billion project is scheduled for the second half of 2026, though details remain scarce.
Expert estimates suggest the technology needs five to ten more years before AI wearables can realistically replace smartphones. Battery life, processing power, and fundamental questions about user interface design remain unresolved. The Rabbit R1’s collapse illustrated how quickly novelty wears off when a device can’t perform basic functions reliably.
Apple’s advantage lies in its ability to integrate hardware across its product lineup. An AI pin that works seamlessly with iPhone, Apple Watch, and AirPods could offer utility that standalone devices cannot. But that same integration raises questions about whether the pin is necessary at all.
The Meta Ray-Ban glasses succeeded partly because they augment existing behavior rather than attempting to replace it. People already wear glasses. Adding AI features feels incremental rather than revolutionary. Apple’s pin faces the harder challenge of creating new habits.